Sat, Nov 3, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 013 | 09 | 034 |
| VGK | 19 | 18 | 18 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:11VGKBrad HuntGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Tomas Hyka · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 2:47VGKRyan ReavesAssists: Shea Theodore, Erik Haula · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 3:36VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:36CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min
- P1 8:54VGKCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:59CARMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:16CARDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:34VGKErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:17CARBrock McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:11VGKNick Holden: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carpenter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Aho – Svechnikov11:14
xG 1.10–0.68 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Williams – Staal – McGinn9:16
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Zykov – Foegele – Roy4:17
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Wallmark7:32
xG 0.05–0.26 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk10:50
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Pesce – Fleury6:25
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin14:17
xG 0.69–0.81 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare4:50
xG 0.55–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:46
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Haula – Hyka – Tuch7:03
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek9:44
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Hunt8:41
xG 0.87–0.11 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Holden – McNabb2:29
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:43
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).