Sun, Nov 4, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 111 | 111 | 01 | 226 |
| ANA | 08 | 212 | 09 | 11 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:33CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Boone Jenner, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 9:09ANACam FowlerAssists: Rickard Rakell, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 18:26ANACam FowlerAssists: Isac Lundeström, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:28CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.38 xG2–2
- OT 0:36ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:45ANAJacob Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 4:53CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:41CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:24ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:22CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P2 7:23ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:42CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:00ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 2:38ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:50CBJAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Nash – Hannikainen5:57
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Duclair – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg2:48
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Dubois2:04
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois9:45
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murray – Nutivaara7:26
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara2:42
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara2:17
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Rakell – Aberg10:55
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Sherwood – Lundeström7:49
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:10
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Carrick – Street – Gibbons3:02
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Montour6:30
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Larsson9:51
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Lindholm3:16
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).