Mon, Nov 5, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 115 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 435 |
| NYI | 38 | 06 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04NYICasey CizikasAssists: Adam Pelech, Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:59MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Max Domi, Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 7:44NYIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Leo Komarov, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 14:58NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 15:36MTLMax DomiPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Joel Armia · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:43MTLNoah JuulsenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.00 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. MTL Tomas Tatar stopped
- 3. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 6. MTL Max Domi stopped
- 7. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 8. MTL Jesperi Kotkaniemi stopped
- 9. NYI Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 10. MTL Joel Armia scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:35MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:25NYIRoss Johnston: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:25MTLAndrew Shaw: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:57MTLBrendan Gallagher: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:26NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:16NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:04NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:28MTLCharles Hudon: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:34MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:48
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:06
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw6:20
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Hudon – Drouin – Domi11:07
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Mete10:59
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly2:35
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Reilly – Juulsen12:07
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Ladd – Komarov10:42
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston4:57
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 2–1
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier9:02
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson12:21
xG 0.05–0.41 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Pelech8:54
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Hickey – Mayfield16:23
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pulock15:29
xG 0.20–0.70 (23%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).