Tue, Nov 6, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 013 | 116 | 08 | 137 |
| TOR | 18 | 18 | 15 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30TORConnor BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:09TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: John Tavares, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:22VGKCody EakinAssists: Shea Theodore, Jon Merrill · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:25TORNazem KadriENAssists: Connor Brown, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:43VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 13:58TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:01TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:26TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:20
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Eakin – Hyka – Nosek5:23
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare6:55
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Haula – Tuch8:29
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Hunt11:03
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore14:16
xG 0.81–0.69 (54%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- McNabb – Miller15:28
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Johnsson – Lindholm8:39
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner14:54
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier5:54
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen10:35
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott2:37
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dermott – Zaitsev2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov7:43
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).