Tue, Nov 6, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 117 | 212 | 05 | 334 |
| NYR | 111 | 113 | 38 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23MTLTomas TatarAssists: Jordie Benn, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:50NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:40MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 6:27MTLMax DomiPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 17:45NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 8:25NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Marc Staal, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 17:16NYRNeal PionkGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 18:12NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.21 xG3–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 12:21NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:24NYRLias Andersson: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:55NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:55MTLMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P2 0:24MTLPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:09NYRLias Andersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45NYRCody McLeod: Charging2 min
- P2 8:45NYRCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:45NYRCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:45NYRCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:45MTLMike Reilly: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:02NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:24MTLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 13:09MTLMax Domi: Holding2 min
- P2 15:44MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:38MTLCharles Hudon: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:10MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:56NYRJimmy Vesey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault7:41
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Hudon – Drouin – Domi7:18
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi4:55
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw4:04
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Mete10:43
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Reilly – Juulsen11:47
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Benn13:15
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 10–16goals 1–3
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Buchnevich7:45
xG 0.62–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- McLeod – Spooner – Chytil5:20
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Fast – Vesey – Andersson4:50
xG 0.01–0.02 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Namestnikov4:31
xG 0.16–0.39 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo8:58
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith9:32
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk13:32
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).