Tue, Nov 6, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 3, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 09 | 116 | 339 |
| OTT | 216 | 310 | 216 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14NJDTaylor HallAssists: Nico Hischier, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:20NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P1 12:05OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Bobby Ryan, Chris Tierney · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 12:58OTTMark StoneAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 2:27OTTColin WhiteAssists: Mark Stone, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 7:35OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 17:44OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 10:11OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–6
- P3 14:13NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Blake Coleman, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–6
- P3 18:01OTTMagnus PaajarviENAssists: Chris Tierney, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:51NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P1 14:26NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:37NJDMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:40OTTColin White: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:37NJDBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:45OTTMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier12:43
xG 1.21–0.38 (76%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Coleman – Dea – Anderson2:03
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johansson – Wood5:15
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Zajac – Johansson – Anderson3:52
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson10:20
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy4:25
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher7:51
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Stone – Dzingel12:31
xG 0.90–0.50 (64%)attempts 22–12goals 3–0
- Paajarvi – Paul – White3:48
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney11:50
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – White2:48
xG 0.02–0.47 (3%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Jaros6:31
xG 0.54–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Chabot7:36
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Wideman – Chabot5:32
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).