Tue, Nov 6, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 117 | 17 | 014 | 04 | 0 | 242 |
| DET | 07 | 111 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:39VANElias PetterssonAssists: Loui Eriksson, Nikolay Goldobin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 11:21VANBen HuttonAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 13:43DETJustin AbdelkaderPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 1:37DETGustav NyquistAssists: Jacob de la Rose · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 2. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. VAN Nikolay Goldobin stopped
- 5. DET Justin Abdelkader stopped
- 6. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:16DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:26VANErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:21DETMartin Frk: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 13:26VANAdam Gaudette: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:40DETMike Green: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Granlund – Motte8:02
xG 0.88–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Goldobin – Pettersson13:24
xG 1.12–0.33 (77%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Archibald – Leipsic – Gaudette5:25
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schaller – Horvat – Virtanen9:26
xG 0.25–0.81 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton16:10
xG 1.35–0.48 (74%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Tanev – Pouliot16:36
xG 1.00–0.45 (69%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher14:53
xG 0.79–0.58 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Nyquist – de la Rose – Rasmussen13:03
xG 0.68–0.72 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Megan – Frk – Ehn5:51
xG 0.27–0.34 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin12:51
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi11:55
xG 0.21–0.77 (21%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen4:51
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Cholowski7:10
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser9:36
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).