Tue, Nov 6, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 115 | 19 | 235 |
| TBL | 215 | 29 | 111 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:34TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 12:32EDMRyan StromeAssists: Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:19TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:59TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 0:40EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ty Rattie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 8:23TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:37EDMTy Rattie: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:48TBLJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 10:37TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P2 17:43EDMRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:43TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:41TBLAnton Stralman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:49EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:26EDMMatt Benning: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:31EDMMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P3 9:31EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:31EDMMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:39TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:06
xG 0.49–0.57 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Rieder – Draisaitl – Caggiula9:40
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Lucic – Strome – Yamamoto7:32
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Khaira6:52
xG 0.10–0.33 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gravel – Benning7:01
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse3:31
xG 0.01–0.19 (3%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom14:29
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Miller9:17
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli7:25
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne9:38
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point11:04
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Koekkoek10:43
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:38
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh13:13
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).