Tue, Nov 6, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 013 | 012 | 139 |
| STL | 311 | 03 | 16 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:01STLRobby FabbriGWGAssists: David Perron, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 19:34CARJaccob SlavinPPAssists: Justin Williams, Lucas Wallmark · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:55STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 16:50STLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Alexander Steen, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:33STLVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:44STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:43CARNicolas Roy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55STLCarl Gunnarsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:56CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P2 16:57STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:59CARDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:39STLPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:18CARMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:22
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- McGinn – Wallmark – Svechnikov2:00
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho9:48
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- McGinn – Zykov – Roy4:06
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk12:34
xG 0.92–0.04 (96%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin12:51
xG 1.10–0.60 (65%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk11:13
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Steen – Bozak – Sanford5:04
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:59
xG 0.54–0.62 (47%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:33
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Barbashev2:10
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn2:29
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn11:12
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko3:14
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).