Wed, Nov 7, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 017 | 016 | 142 |
| WSH | 07 | 110 | 15 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 18:46WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:17PITJamie Oleksiak: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:33WSHJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:09PITCarl Hagelin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:33PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:35WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:27PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:36WSHTravis Boyd: Holding2 min
- P3 3:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin6:02
xG 0.59–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Kessel – Guentzel4:13
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel3:55
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Simon7:46
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta10:40
xG 1.64–0.59 (74%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel13:28
xG 0.96–0.01 (99%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Letang12:31
xG 0.68–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana2:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky5:19
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson2:32
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Stephenson6:47
xG 0.00–0.39 (1%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Kempny4:51
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov7:06
xG 0.00–0.65 (0%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov10:26
xG 0.29–0.94 (24%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).