Thu, Nov 8, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 04 | 113 | 127 |
| FLA | 07 | 219 | 27 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:45FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:12FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Bogdan Kiselevich, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 0:23EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 3:43FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:11FLAColton SceviourENAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mike Hoffman · Backhand, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:00FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P1 18:48EDMZack Kassian: Charging2 min
- P1 19:14FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:18EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:18FLATroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:24EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:54FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:17EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Caggiula6:47
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:25
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Caggiula6:00
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl6:42
xG 0.22–0.32 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:35
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Gravel – Benning12:32
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse14:48
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano11:37
xG 1.06–0.26 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko6:12
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Barkov14:20
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – McCann – Malgin8:42
xG 0.20–0.47 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich16:43
xG 0.84–0.44 (66%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Yandle – Petrovic13:06
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad15:34
xG 0.43–0.63 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).