Thu, Nov 8, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 6, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 313 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 631 |
| MTL | 317 | 215 | 05 | 00 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08BUFVladimir SobotkaAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:14MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Max Domi, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:40BUFVladimir SobotkaAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P1 14:50MTLMatthew PecaAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 15:52BUFConor ShearyAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P1 16:26MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–3
- P2 5:34BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 10:17MTLTomas TatarAssists: Max Domi, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P2 18:03MTLNicolas DeslauriersSHAssists: Matthew Peca · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 2:20BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–5
- OT 1:38BUFRasmus RistolainenGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:03BUFJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:49BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:42BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:57MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:11MTLKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P2 18:48MTLXavier Ouellet: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:22BUFJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peca won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons7:38
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Sobotka – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:53
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt7:55
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel10:03
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Dahlin12:17
xG 0.93–0.77 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 3–1
- Bogosian – McCabe6:50
xG 0.10–0.14 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen7:04
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Drouin – Domi9:02
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon6:49
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Agostino – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:25
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:31
xG 0.19–0.88 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Reilly15:49
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Mete11:36
xG 0.97–0.71 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
- Petry – Benn12:41
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).