Thu, Nov 8, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 116 | 010 | 111 | 237 |
| TBL | 07 | 211 | 29 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 5:58TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:12TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 8:43NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Adam Pelech, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 18:34TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:50TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:04NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:03TBLJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:56NYILeo Komarov: Holding2 min
- P1 17:57TBLSlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P2 11:33NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:47TBLDan Girardi: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:32TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:35NYIJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal2:21
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl5:16
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Ladd – Komarov10:29
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson7:15
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Pelech9:43
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Hickey – Mayfield10:53
xG 0.61–0.49 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Leddy – Pulock15:03
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Gourde – Point10:11
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller8:32
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne8:46
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:00
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh13:10
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Coburn – Sergachev11:41
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek11:43
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).