Thu, Nov 8, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 316 | 110 | 08 | 434 |
| CHI | 013 | 214 | 111 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jordan Martinook, Lucas Wallmark · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 9:09CARJaccob SlavinPPAssists: Justin Williams, Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P1 15:53CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Brock McGinn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 1:20CARCalvin de HaanGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–0
- P2 4:34CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 10:53CHIDavid KampfAssists: Brandon Saad, Jan Rutta · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 3:33CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:46CHIHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:10CARCalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:49CHIAlexandre Fortin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:08CARClark Bishop: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Foegele13:26
xG 0.94–0.33 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – McGinn – Bishop7:53
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho3:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov10:57
xG 0.57–0.74 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk16:54
xG 1.67–0.91 (65%)attempts 17–23goals 3–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk13:03
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce16:44
xG 0.42–1.24 (25%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Schmaltz9:19
xG 1.21–0.42 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun10:25
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Martinsen – Kampf2:56
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Martinsen4:41
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Jokiharju16:18
xG 1.15–0.21 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Jokiharju4:10
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson15:26
xG 1.24–1.10 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).