Fri, Nov 9, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Washington Capitals 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 016 | 111 | 236 |
| WSH | 015 | 110 | 09 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:16CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:53WSHMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 5:09CBJAnthony DuclairPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:46CBJJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:28WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:08CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min
- P2 18:13WSHMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P3 4:04WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:00CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:17CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Panarin – Dubois10:55
xG 1.08–0.28 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson11:56
xG 1.06–0.55 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Duclair – Wennberg4:49
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Hannikainen10:29
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones16:40
xG 2.28–0.94 (71%)attempts 26–17goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara18:06
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
- Harrington – Werenski7:53
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSmith-Pelly – Boyd – Burakovsky6:16
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana11:24
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Stephenson10:43
xG 0.41–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Jaskin10:27
xG 0.20–1.56 (11%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Djoos – Siegenthaler2:05
xG 0.02–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Bowey5:26
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bowey – Siegenthaler7:54
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).