Fri, Nov 9, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 0, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 013 | 014 | 033 |
| STL | 19 | 213 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 5:28STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 13:57STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Tyler Bozak, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 12:21STLAlexander SteenAssists: Tyler Bozak, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:15STLVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:15SJSJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:05SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:10STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
- P2 2:21SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:56STLTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:06SJSErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:11STLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:52SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:08STLZachary Sanford: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suomela won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Sorensen10:44
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Suomela11:00
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Labanc – Meier7:05
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier7:35
xG 0.00–0.77 (0%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon11:48
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Burns – Karlsson2:17
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Heed10:30
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Bozak – Soshnikov5:51
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:50
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Barbashev6:58
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Fabbri – Thomas10:04
xG 0.55–0.66 (46%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo13:24
xG 1.12–0.70 (61%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko2:07
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn10:56
xG 0.59–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).