Fri, Nov 9, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 012 | 214 | 230 |
| WPG | 28 | 08 | 38 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:16WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:32WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 2:26COLErik JohnsonAssists: Carl Soderberg, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 5:42WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 6:52COLTyson JostAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 10:43WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:34WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:08COLPatrik Nemeth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 18:29WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:34COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:01WPGNic Petan: Holding2 min
- P2 16:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:17WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:36COLSheldon Dries: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Jost3:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:05
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries3:29
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Bourque7:12
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Zadorov8:23
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard2:57
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie14:16
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Petan – Roslovic4:59
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Tanev – Laine8:59
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:25
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Little – Perreault – Connor9:59
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot8:50
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey12:09
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Myers – Kulikov5:28
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).