Sat, Nov 10, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 015 | 212 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 339 |
| BUF | 110 | 06 | 219 | 02 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43BUFNathan BeaulieuAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 18:16VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Markus Granlund, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 19:26VANJake VirtanenAssists: Antoine Roussel · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 3:44VANErik GudbransonAssists: Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 17:33BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 18:13BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.32 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 2. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. VAN Markus Granlund scored
- 5. BUF Casey Mittelstadt scored
- 6. VAN Nikolay Goldobin stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:15VANAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 10:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 9:31BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:24VANJake Virtanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:56BUFEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:00BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Horvat5:22
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Granlund – Schaller – Motte2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Virtanen – Goldobin – Pettersson10:17
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Pettersson3:55
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Stecher13:23
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton16:06
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Tanev – Pouliot16:32
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt7:38
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel2:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reinhart – Rodrigues6:07
xG 0.28–0.30 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel7:15
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin2:12
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:46
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Dahlin10:41
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).