Sat, Nov 10, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 013 | 08 | 012 | 033 |
| PHI | 110 | 111 | 24 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56PHIClaude GirouxGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 9:12PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 4:18PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 18:59PHINolan PatrickENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:25CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:12PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:24CHIHenri Jokiharju: Holding2 min
- P3 0:37PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:05CHIHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:58PHINolan Patrick: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:36PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – DeBrincat – Kahun6:26
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hayden – Fortin – Kampf3:58
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Kampf – Kahun2:34
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Hayden – Fortin2:23
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson14:49
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Keith – Jokiharju15:01
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Manning – Rutta11:15
xG 0.08–0.61 (12%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny14:05
xG 0.97–0.04 (96%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick10:26
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Weal11:01
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Aube-Kubel3:57
xG 0.08–0.78 (9%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Folin13:19
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim13:05
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Hagg – Provorov16:57
xG 0.62–1.03 (37%)attempts 11–20goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).