Sat, Nov 10, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 18 | 310 | 12 | 534 |
| DAL | 14 | 28 | 19 | 03 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:05DALTyler PitlickAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:12NSHRyan HartmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:47DALTyler SeguinAssists: Julius Honka, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 14:32DALJason SpezzaPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 0:17NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Roman Josi, Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 1:54NSHYannick WeberAssists: Kevin Fiala, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 8:58DALDenis GurianovAssists: Ben Gleason, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:17NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 2:27NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:22DALMattias Janmark: Delaying game2 min
- P1 13:11DALJason Dickinson: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:34DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 13:05NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:36DALMiro Heiskanen: Delaying game2 min
- P3 11:52NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P3 18:21DALEsa Lindell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:46NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGrimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau5:39
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:26
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Bonino – Sissons – Hartman9:44
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala10:03
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm18:24
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Weber – Bitetto7:33
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis18:27
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 20–11goals 2–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Shore – Nichushkin5:33
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Janmark – Dickinson3:36
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa10:59
xG 0.30–0.47 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Spezza – Benn – Gurianov7:51
xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Heiskanen13:47
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Honka – Heiskanen2:19
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen3:49
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).