Sat, Nov 10, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Montréal Canadiens 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 215 | 19 | 114 | 438 |
| MTL | 04 | 312 | 211 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:40VGKBrad HuntPPAssists: William Karlsson, Tomas Hyka · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:37VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 6:04MTLCharles HudonAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Victor Mete · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:09MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 9:57MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Kenny Agostino · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 14:34VGKAlex TuchAssists: Colin Miller, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 3:27VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Tomas Hyka, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 9:20MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Max Domi, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 12:17MTLTomas TatarGWGAssists: Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:29MTLMike Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:44VGKColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:56MTLCharles Hudon: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:59VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Eakin – Tuch14:30
xG 1.26–0.40 (76%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- Hyka – Carpenter – Nosek6:36
xG 0.21–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare10:42
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:10
xG 0.26–0.39 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Hunt10:13
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Holden – Theodore19:20
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 20–19goals 0–2
- McNabb – Miller17:42
xG 0.53–0.94 (36%)attempts 13–20goals 2–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault12:34
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon7:13
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Agostino – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi10:38
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi12:29
xG 0.68–1.45 (32%)attempts 17–25goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Schlemko3:34
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Petry – Benn10:03
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Alzner – Reilly15:49
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).