Sat, Nov 10, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 113 | 05 | 231 |
| FLA | 16 | 114 | 211 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18FLADenis MalginAssists: Jared McCann, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 7:28NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 8:10NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Scott Mayfield, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 19:14FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 4:43FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:59FLATroy BrouwerENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:49FLABogdan Kiselevich: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:51FLAMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:59NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min
- P2 0:11FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:49NYINick Leddy: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:06NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:47FLABogdan Kiselevich: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:42FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:42NYIValtteri Filppula: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P3 10:50NYILeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nelson – Kuhnhackl8:47
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal11:29
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Beauvillier5:03
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Filppula – Ladd – Komarov6:38
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield12:48
xG 0.66–0.28 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pulock11:06
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Pelech10:16
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano9:34
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko6:07
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Barkov9:43
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – McCann – Malgin5:52
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich11:22
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad14:32
xG 0.74–0.46 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Yandle – Petrovic14:28
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).