Sat, Nov 10, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 07 | 27 | 04 | 1 | 432 |
| CAR | 118 | 219 | 015 | 00 | 0 | 352 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Nick Jensen, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:40CARBrock McGinnAssists: Haydn Fleury, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:35CARMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:01CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 6:04DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 9:02DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Darren Helm, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 2. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 3. CAR Brock McGinn stopped
- 4. DET Frans Nielsen scored
- 5. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:25CARBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:07DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
- P2 7:21DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:51DETAnthony Mantha: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:17CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:38DETTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:44DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Megan – Frk – Rasmussen5:06
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Athanasiou10:58
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin11:23
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi7:33
xG 0.14–1.59 (8%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeKeyser – Cholowski2:55
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Daley – Green15:27
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Cholowski11:03
xG 0.25–1.07 (19%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov10:24
xG 1.35–0.15 (90%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho10:34
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Williams – Staal – Foegele12:13
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – McGinn – Bishop8:21
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Fleury11:34
xG 2.07–0.42 (83%)attempts 26–11goals 2–0
- de Haan – Faulk14:20
xG 0.79–0.24 (76%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:58
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).