Sun, Nov 11, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 1, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 07 | 018 | 135 |
| FLA | 07 | 522 | 011 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35OTTRyan DzingelPPAssists: Chris Tierney, Maxime Lajoie · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:05FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mike Hoffman, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:01FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 14:57FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Bogdan Kiselevich, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 16:03FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Colton Sceviour, Juho Lammikko · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
- P2 18:11FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Bogdan Kiselevich · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:02FLAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:35OTTCody Ceci: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:38OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31FLANick Bjugstad: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:33FLAJuho Lammikko: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:05OTTMark Stone: Interference2 min
- P3 13:09FLATroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:34FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Stone – Paul2:19
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel2:31
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – McCormick4:25
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Stone – Tkachuk2:14
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Chabot11:02
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie5:02
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot6:46
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – McCann – Malgin9:42
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano13:16
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko7:10
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Barkov10:08
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Petrovic14:52
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Weegar – Kiselevich12:47
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ekblad16:16
xG 1.13–1.03 (52%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).