Sun, Nov 11, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 18 | 014 | 130 |
| SJS | 112 | 111 | 16 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:28SJSJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 6:02CGYSean MonahanAssists: Mark Jankowski · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:08SJSJoe PavelskiENAssists: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:07CGYJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:37CGYMark Jankowski: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:17CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:17SJSTimo Meier: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:38CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:22SJSBrenden Dillon: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Bennett – Ryan2:24
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk3:23
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Czarnik6:08
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Backlund – Tkachuk4:08
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Välimäki11:56
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie19:00
xG 0.76–0.74 (50%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin15:10
xG 0.20–0.72 (22%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Donskoi11:49
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier11:48
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Suomela7:11
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Karlsson – Meier2:25
xG 0.03–0.39 (6%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Karlsson2:14
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Dillon13:22
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Burns – Ryan13:43
xG 0.61–0.53 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).