Sun, Nov 11, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 210 | 06 | 428 |
| EDM | 09 | 010 | 18 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 15:33COLCarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Calvert · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:06COLAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 10:56COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.19 xG4–0
- P3 9:20EDMTy RattieAssists: Adam Larsson, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:14COLMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:07EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:57COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P3 15:36EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bourque – Nieto – Kamenev7:16
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:23
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost10:16
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries8:20
xG 0.14–0.26 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard14:09
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Cole – Barrie11:42
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Cole3:16
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Kassian – Khaira10:22
xG 0.87–0.10 (90%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Caggiula4:58
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Caggiula4:47
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Nugent-Hopkins2:43
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse15:12
xG 1.25–0.34 (79%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Garrison – Benning9:57
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom15:39
xG 0.27–0.65 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).