Mon, Nov 12, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 116 | 07 | 00 | 235 |
| CAR | 011 | 218 | 08 | 13 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 10:49CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kahun, David Kampf · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:07CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 15:13CARMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 1:16CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 14:04CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:47CHIHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:02CHIBrent Seabrook: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:02CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Schmaltz17:16
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Johnson – Martinsen7:16
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Hayden – Fortin9:31
xG 0.56–0.77 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Kampf – Kahun14:27
xG 0.67–1.00 (40%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Jokiharju20:43
xG 1.65–1.37 (55%)attempts 30–19goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Rutta2:12
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Jokiharju2:23
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov11:38
xG 1.32–0.67 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Williams – Staal – McGinn15:48
xG 0.85–0.72 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Foegele – Bishop6:57
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho11:25
xG 0.60–0.76 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin21:12
xG 1.33–0.93 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury14:30
xG 1.14–1.09 (51%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk18:59
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).