Mon, Nov 12, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 110 | 18 | 228 |
| DAL | 09 | 18 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:29CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 18:20DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 10:21CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Ryan Murray · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:47CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P1 7:13DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:13CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:46CBJArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:26CBJAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:04DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:52DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:54CBJSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:54DALBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:07DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:16CBJRiley Nash: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg6:28
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson10:15
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Nash – Duclair – Hannikainen3:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois9:47
xG 0.71–0.80 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones18:22
xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 21–18goals 1–1
- Harrington – Werenski4:33
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski2:19
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin11:06
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa5:15
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Janmark2:18
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHonka – Heiskanen12:03
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Polak – Lindell3:56
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen2:41
xG 0.03–0.01 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).