Mon, Nov 12, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 1, Anaheim Ducks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 05 | 110 | 010 | 1 | 135 |
| ANA | 010 | 19 | 07 | 04 | 2 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:30ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 3:07NSHKevin FialaAssists: Kyle Turris, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ANA Pontus Aberg scored
- 2. NSH Kyle Turris scored
- 3. ANA Ondrej Kase stopped
- 4. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 5. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 6. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 7. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
- 8. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:45ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:41NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09ANAAdam Henrique: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:06ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:11NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:48ANARyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:25ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:25NSHZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:49ANABrian Gibbons: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:48ANAPontus Aberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 2:51ANAJakob Silfverberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Turris – Smith – Fiala6:04
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Sissons9:45
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bonino – Salomaki – Hartman11:40
xG 0.03–0.63 (4%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Irwin2:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Ekholm2:34
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:31
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Aberg14:40
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase11:46
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:37
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Kossila – Sherwood4:51
xG 0.02–0.07 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour2:57
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Montour8:45
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Larsson12:13
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).