Tue, Nov 13, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 010 | 110 | 231 |
| NJD | 115 | 116 | 24 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Taylor Hall, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 13:57PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 8:06NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Taylor Hall, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:04PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 8:07NJDTaylor HallGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:33NJDTaylor HallENAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:04PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:12NJDStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:09NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:48NJDBen Lovejoy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:20PITPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:20PITPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:20NJDBrett Seney: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin10:11
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Aston-Reese7:08
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel7:37
xG 0.06–0.44 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Simon10:26
xG 0.52–0.96 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin7:24
xG 0.49–0.19 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel9:27
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel3:12
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall14:29
xG 1.25–0.32 (79%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Coleman – Seney – Anderson8:12
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Noesen – Wood – Dea7:21
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt10:31
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson15:57
xG 1.39–0.67 (67%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher10:25
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Mueller16:13
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).