Wed, Nov 14, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 210 | 14 | 09 | 323 |
| COL | 17 | 17 | 411 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:16COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:43BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: David Backes, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:20BOSJake DeBruskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 3:05BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 8:47COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 2:11COLMatt CalvertAssists: Sheldon Dries · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:02COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 15:39COLTyson JostPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Alexander Kerfoot · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 19:45COLAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:50COLMark Barberio: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:17COLColin Wilson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11COLMikko Rantanen: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:40BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Wagner – Kuraly7:36
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:52
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Krejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk8:45
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
- Heinen – Bjork – Forsbacka Karlsson9:43
xG 0.08–0.45 (14%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Grzelcyk3:58
xG 0.25–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Moore – Krug4:33
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Moore2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Dries8:19
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost10:20
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – Nieto – Kamenev5:35
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:38
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Girard2:04
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard11:34
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Cole – Girard2:54
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).