Thu, Nov 15, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 09 | 28 | 327 |
| PHI | 010 | 010 | 09 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45NJDJoey AndersonGWGAssists: Brett Seney, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 13:52NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Blake Coleman, Travis Zajac · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 16:58NJDBlake ColemanENAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:41NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:10NJDSami Vatanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:56PHIChristian Folin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:38PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:38NJDMirco Mueller: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:10PHINolan Patrick: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:10NJDJesper Bratt: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:36NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:41PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:41NJDDamon Severson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zacha – Bratt8:19
xG 0.43–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall9:35
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Dea8:26
xG 0.30–0.57 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Coleman – Seney – Anderson7:37
xG 0.03–0.88 (4%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Mueller5:29
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Butcher – Mueller3:30
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Mueller5:01
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Laughton – Aube-Kubel2:46
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:05
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick6:25
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Patrick3:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Sanheim12:08
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:55
xG 0.39–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hagg – Folin3:01
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).