Thu, Nov 15, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 114 | 016 | 343 |
| CBJ | 07 | 317 | 413 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44FLANick BjugstadAssists: Mike Matheson, Denis Malgin · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:45FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 0:28CBJCam AtkinsonSHAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 3:46CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 6:16CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Anthony Duclair, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 13:12FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 4:01CBJMarkus HannikainenGWGAssists: Zac Dalpe, David Savard · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 8:59CBJAnthony DuclairAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Markus Nutivaara · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 12:57CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 14:51CBJBoone JennerENAssists: Ryan Murray, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:15CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:15CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:52CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko10:06
xG 1.08–0.06 (95%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – McCann – Malgin9:09
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano10:06
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Barkov12:24
xG 0.36–1.24 (22%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich12:52
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Yandle – Petrovic12:02
xG 0.78–0.70 (53%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Matheson – Ekblad15:50
xG 1.10–1.36 (45%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Anderson11:26
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg6:30
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Duclair – Dubois6:50
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Dalpe – Sedlak – Hannikainen7:41
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara14:58
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Murray – Jones13:34
xG 1.16–0.89 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara2:12
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).