Thu, Nov 15, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 110 | 016 | 135 |
| OTT | 110 | 118 | 08 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:21OTTCody CeciAssists: Matt Duchene, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:55DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Mike Green, Trevor Daley · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:05OTTDrake BathersonPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:38DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:38OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:42DETWade Megan: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:47DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45DETAnthony Mantha: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:53DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:34OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 16:43OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:10OTTCody Ceci: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 11:13DETMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:59OTTChris Wideman: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi7:45
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Athanasiou11:05
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:36
xG 0.49–0.56 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Megan – Frk – Rasmussen2:27
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Green14:13
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Cholowski10:35
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser13:10
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Boedker – Duchene – Batherson4:34
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Ryan – Dzingel – Tierney9:34
xG 0.21–0.36 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi9:06
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk8:27
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot17:42
xG 0.97–0.79 (55%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman8:25
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lajoie13:14
xG 0.22–0.89 (20%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).