Thu, Nov 15, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 18 | 18 | 227 |
| MIN | 210 | 312 | 17 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:43MINMikko KoivuPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 1:46MINNino NiederreiterPPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 6:26VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 7:02MINEric StaalAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 13:12MINMathew DumbaAssists: JT Brown, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 5:27MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 5:53VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Troy Stecher, Darren Archibald · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:50VANDarren Archibald: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:38MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P1 15:16MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:40VANBen Hutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:03MINJordan Greenway: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P3 2:52MINEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:16MINJason Zucker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeipsic – Schaller – Gaudette4:27
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Schaller – Gaudette2:12
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Horvat – Virtanen4:55
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Goldobin – Pettersson2:41
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Gudbranson2:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tanev – Pouliot10:26
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher13:15
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Coyle – Niederreiter11:09
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:43
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund13:18
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Fehr – Brown7:16
xG 0.07–0.33 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin16:07
xG 0.90–0.19 (83%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Seeler12:21
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba14:39
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).