Fri, Nov 16, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 0, Dallas Stars 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 07 | 06 | 00 | 023 |
| DAL | 010 | 08 | 013 | 16 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:34DALJason DickinsonGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 3:42DALGavin Bayreuther: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:34BOSSean Kuraly: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:14DALTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P1 12:12BOSSteven Kampfer: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:12DALAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:45DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:45BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:45BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:46BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:46BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:15BOSConnor Clifton: Delaying game2 min
- P3 9:18DALBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:55DALJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:55BOSConnor Clifton: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:55BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:55DALJason Spezza: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Pastrnak – Heinen6:31
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk4:10
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Bjork – Forsbacka Karlsson2:11
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Heinen – Bjork – Forsbacka Karlsson2:53
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Lauzon2:28
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Zboril9:51
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Krug2:15
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Ritchie – Janmark4:47
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa10:36
xG 0.32–0.18 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Janmark – Dickinson – Nichushkin4:01
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:58
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Lindell10:36
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen3:11
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Honka – Bayreuther5:54
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).