Fri, Nov 16, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Los Angeles Kings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 112 | 010 | 00 | 2 | 232 |
| CHI | 08 | 012 | 114 | 01 | 0 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:29LAKTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 2:39CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. LAK Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:10LAKMichael Amadio: Holding2 min
- P2 12:30LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:11LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Kempe – Luff7:53
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Toffoli12:40
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Amadio5:03
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Hagelin – Kempe2:35
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort20:21
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:21
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg11:38
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Schmaltz – DeBrincat4:02
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Hayden – Martinsen2:29
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Saad – Hayden5:17
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad6:19
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Jokiharju7:38
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Forsling10:14
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Manning – Jokiharju5:02
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).