Fri, Nov 16, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 316 | 012 | 435 |
| VGK | 110 | 013 | 010 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 6:41STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:02STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:13STLBrayden SchennAssists: Joel Edmundson, Tyler Bozak · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 17:12STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:24STLZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:48VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:57STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:27VGKRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:27STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:33STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:56VGKWilliam Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:29VGKCody Eakin: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:00VGKTomas Nosek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:40
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Bozak – Schenn – Fabbri7:43
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Perron – Sanford – Thomas6:07
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Blais4:00
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Dunn12:14
xG 1.19–0.36 (77%)attempts 14–16goals 3–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson3:38
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko2:47
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare6:35
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Hyka – Carpenter – Nosek4:07
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch10:01
xG 0.29–0.83 (26%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:32
xG 0.10–0.68 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Theodore4:19
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – McNabb2:45
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill12:44
xG 0.76–0.81 (48%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).