Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 011 | 29 | 329 |
| MIN | 218 | 012 | 09 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00MINZach PariseUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:45MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 14:52BUFJake McCabeAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:58BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 18:30BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:59BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:26BUFVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:44MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:52BUFZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel4:31
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons9:18
xG 0.79–0.17 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson5:32
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reinhart – Thompson4:10
xG 0.04–0.07 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen16:27
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin16:40
xG 1.04–0.61 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Scandella – Nelson14:18
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter12:46
xG 0.90–0.34 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Foligno – Coyle – Greenway11:10
xG 0.42–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Brown8:06
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund16:18
xG 0.53–0.73 (42%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba20:37
xG 1.12–1.06 (51%)attempts 18–23goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler13:13
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin17:02
xG 0.39–0.97 (29%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).