Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 09 | 315 | 435 |
| OTT | 310 | 28 | 17 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:59PITKris LetangPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:33OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Colin White · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:07OTTMark StoneAssists: Thomas Chabot, Ryan Dzingel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 18:50OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Drake Batherson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 16:35OTTMark StoneSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 17:21OTTCody CeciGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 2:20PITZachary Aston-ReeseUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 5:34PITMatt CullenAssists: Bryan Rust, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–5
- P3 9:05OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Drake Batherson, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–6
- P3 16:56PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:38OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:23PITMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:49OTTMagnus Paajarvi: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:41PITMatt Cullen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:59OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:44PITJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:44OTTChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Rust – Aston-Reese9:10
xG 0.78–0.20 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Grant – Sprong – Simon8:37
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Pearson3:29
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Guentzel2:25
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang11:17
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 2–2
- Letang – Dumoulin2:30
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Maatta12:07
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Paajarvi10:39
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Boedker – Duchene – Batherson8:39
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk8:03
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lajoie12:09
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo2:06
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Wideman – Chabot2:21
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).