Sat, Nov 17, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 311 | 05 | 424 |
| CAR | 09 | 110 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:57CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:05CARSebastian AhoAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 7:22CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Cam Atkinson, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 11:20CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:37CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Interference2 min
- P2 10:56CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:24CBJArtemi Panarin: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 16:32CBJArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:14CARClark Bishop: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12CARLucas Wallmark: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:35CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:14CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Sedlak – Hannikainen8:41
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois10:49
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 7–14goals 3–0
- Jenner – Anderson – Bjorkstrand10:42
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Duclair – Wennberg9:11
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara14:35
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski2:38
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Harrington – Werenski7:45
xG 0.18–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Svechnikov2:05
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn7:59
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark2:34
xG 0.03–0.01 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho10:38
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin13:16
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- de Haan – Faulk13:19
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk2:27
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).