Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 19 | 213 | 331 |
| VAN | 010 | 19 | 119 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:07MTLTomas TatarAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 16:13VANMichael Del ZottoAssists: Antoine Roussel, Tyler Motte · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 10:09VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Ben Hutton, Nikolay Goldobin · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:41MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 17:16MTLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:13VANAdam Gaudette: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:50MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36MTLMax Domi: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:48VANJake Virtanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:29MTLXavier Ouellet: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:14MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:08VANMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudette won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:36
xG 1.04–0.19 (84%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Agostino – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:47
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi11:21
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon6:21
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn17:49
xG 1.54–0.73 (68%)attempts 27–20goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Juulsen15:57
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Ouellet – Mete9:49
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Horvat – Goldobin4:41
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Leipsic – Virtanen – Pettersson2:26
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Goldobin – Pettersson5:20
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Granlund – Schaller – Horvat2:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Stecher16:27
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Tanev – Pouliot14:06
xG 0.44–0.79 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton11:17
xG 0.28–1.38 (17%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).