Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 39 | 07 | 328 |
| NSH | 014 | 212 | 317 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:18NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:55LAKNate ThompsonAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 6:14LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 8:05NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:15LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 5:44NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Roman Josi, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 11:54NSHCalle JarnkrokSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:03NSHNick BoninoENAssists: Austin Watson, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:27NSHYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:02LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P2 1:27LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:50NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:43NSHRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:43LAKDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:17LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:24LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:06NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Thompson – Clifford – Amadio3:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Hagelin – Kempe2:54
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Thompson – Toffoli2:03
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:04
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez12:42
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg8:32
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:38
xG 0.27–1.48 (16%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Johansen – Forsberg13:36
xG 1.08–0.21 (84%)attempts 25–8goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons11:38
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Salomaki – Hartman – Gaudreau4:23
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Hartman2:46
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Ekholm14:14
xG 0.95–0.41 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis15:31
xG 0.69–0.43 (61%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Bitetto9:58
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).