Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 112 | 05 | 226 |
| CGY | 09 | 110 | 318 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29EDMAlex ChiassonSHAssists: Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:49EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 16:23CGYDerek RyanPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 2:40CGYSean MonahanAssists: Travis Hamonic, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 9:10CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 19:18CGYElias LindholmENAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:59EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P1 3:09CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:09EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:58CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:58EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P1 9:58EDMLeon Draisaitl: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:48CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 1:30CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:58EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:12EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P3 19:35EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Caggiula2:15
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – McDavid12:06
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Khaira – Caggiula4:29
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula2:00
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Gravel9:27
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse12:46
xG 0.30–0.90 (25%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom17:58
xG 0.29–1.00 (22%)attempts 12–21goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:47
xG 0.92–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Frolik – Hathaway – Ryan5:40
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Frolik – Ryan2:58
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk12:12
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin13:42
xG 0.99–0.09 (91%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:57
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Andersson – Välimäki11:33
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).