Sun, Nov 18, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Dallas Stars 6, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 411 | 29 | 633 |
| NYI | 113 | 015 | 111 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Leo Komarov, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 2:09DALEsa LindellAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:40DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 7:08DALEsa LindellGWGAssists: Julius Honka, Jason Dickinson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 14:07DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 0:24NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 7:35DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Gavin Bayreuther, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 9:16DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:39NYITom Kuhnhackl: Interference2 min
- P2 7:21NYIThomas Hickey: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:14DALRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:19DALEsa Lindell: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin8:09
xG 1.60–0.71 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 3–1
- Spezza – Smith – Dickinson2:20
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Janmark – Dickinson – Nichushkin2:55
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Nichushkin2:19
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Heiskanen9:52
xG 1.16–0.28 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Polak – Bayreuther12:30
xG 1.30–0.69 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Lindell – Hanley3:45
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Beauvillier8:52
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal13:42
xG 0.91–0.85 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Dal Colle7:13
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Eberle – Nelson – Kuhnhackl9:42
xG 0.57–1.25 (31%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield17:33
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Sbisa13:00
xG 0.64–1.03 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Leddy – Pulock15:27
xG 0.82–2.04 (29%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).