Sun, Nov 18, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 116 | 011 | 07 | 134 |
| CAR | 213 | 05 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Jordan Staal, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 0:30CARMicheal FerlandGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 6:33NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:53CARJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P2 9:24NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:04CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:26CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:42NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:05NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Wood – Dea7:25
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt7:33
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall9:31
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Coleman – Seney – Anderson8:00
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher9:16
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson13:32
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Severson – Butcher3:40
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – McGinn11:03
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho10:52
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Di Giuseppe – Foegele – Bishop6:23
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov10:59
xG 0.37–0.76 (33%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:52
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- de Haan – Faulk15:21
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury9:19
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).