Sun, Nov 18, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 115 | 014 | 140 |
| CHI | 216 | 07 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:29CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Alexandre Fortin, Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 7:56MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 19:01CHIDominik KahunENAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:32MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 6:48CHIHenri Jokiharju: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:57CHIJonathan Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 15:04MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:51CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter9:57
xG 0.96–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund7:57
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown5:20
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – Coyle – Eriksson Ek2:58
xG 0.03–0.24 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin13:23
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba20:14
xG 1.04–1.00 (51%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Seeler9:07
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Saad12:19
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Fortin – Kampf – Kahun7:14
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Kruger – Hayden – Martinsen6:19
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Schmaltz – DeBrincat14:00
xG 0.61–0.83 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Jokiharju12:19
xG 0.79–0.35 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Rutta2:02
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:00
xG 0.76–0.82 (48%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).