Sun, Nov 18, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 312 | 213 | 631 |
| EDM | 210 | 010 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:57VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Shea Theodore, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:33EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 2:21VGKCody EakinSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 3:53VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Alex Tuch, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 4:33VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 0:34VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Colin Miller, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 3:04VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.08 xG6–2
- P3 3:44EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:44VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:40VGKWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:16EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:33EDMConnor McDavid: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:33VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:06EDMDrake Caggiula: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare11:04
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:28
xG 0.48–0.49 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Lindberg – Hyka – Carpenter9:27
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch11:19
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Theodore17:06
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- McNabb – Miller16:25
xG 0.73–0.76 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Engelland – Holden15:13
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Marody – Russell10:50
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Caggiula14:59
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Brodziak – Kassian – Khaira11:14
xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Spooner – Nugent-Hopkins9:49
xG 0.19–0.50 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom18:21
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Russell – Garrison11:19
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse13:56
xG 0.27–0.65 (29%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).