Sun, Nov 18, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 217 | 111 | 13 | 442 |
| ANA | 19 | 212 | 09 | 03 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45ANABrandon MontourAssists: Pontus Aberg, Nick Ritchie · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:17COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Vladislav Kamenev · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:23ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:34ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Brandon Montour, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 18:05COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 11:20COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:58COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:58COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P2 16:41ANABrandon Montour: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:54COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:45ANAPontus Aberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen20:30
xG 1.18–0.74 (61%)attempts 34–14goals 1–0
- Bourque – Dano – Kamenev6:02
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries11:18
xG 0.36–0.44 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost10:01
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie17:25
xG 0.99–0.54 (65%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov11:28
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Barrie – Girard2:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Kase13:22
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg14:38
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
- Gibbons – Kossila – Sherwood7:07
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Aberg – Ritchie12:47
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Manson – Larsson21:49
xG 0.89–0.94 (49%)attempts 15–30goals 0–1
- Welinski – Pettersson12:33
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Montour – Mahura17:01
xG 0.33–0.91 (27%)attempts 6–23goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).