Mon, Nov 19, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 111 | 114 | 11 | 534 |
| MTL | 118 | 316 | 07 | 03 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20MTLMike ReillyAssists: Matthew Peca · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:16WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:40WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 0:20MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 1:08MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 1:35MTLKenny AgostinoAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 13:20WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Christian Djoos, Madison Bowey · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 1:02WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 3:34WSHLars EllerGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:34WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:34WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:34MTLKenny Agostino: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:52WSHMadison Bowey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:35WSHLars Eller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:48MTLMax Domi: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:48WSHDmitry Orlov: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:10MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:52MTLJordie Benn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson8:10
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Connolly – Jaskin5:12
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Burakovsky – Vrana4:22
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana5:35
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov8:42
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Carlson – Kempny8:48
xG 0.30–0.34 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov10:40
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault13:02
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Agostino – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:43
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi13:06
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon3:14
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Mete5:34
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Petry – Reilly2:30
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Reilly2:45
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).